First place, last place or somewhere in between? The best news about your favorite team so far

  • Sports reporter, Kansas City Star, 2002-09
  • Writer, Baseball, Baseball Prospectus
  • Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus
  • Member, Baseball Writers Association of America
  • Member, Professional Basketball Writers Association

The young season has already seen a lot of jostling in baseball’s pecking order. Expected contenders such as the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox have struggled, while middling teams from last season such as the New York Mets and Los Angeles Angels have made moves toward baseball’s elite. And the Cincinnati Reds simply can’t win a game. The journey is just getting started.

Taking a snapshot of this movement is what Stock Watch is all about. In addition to that snapshot for each club, we’re going to dig hard and try to point out something positive. After a bleak winter, it feels like the least we could do. Alas, for some teams, we’ll have to dig a little bit deeper than others.

Note: Power ratings are based on each team’s performance to date and rest-of-season projections. The average power rating is 100. Win projections and postseason probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule and the estimated baseline talent of each team’s roster.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Power rating: 120.0 (Change from Opening Day: 2.0)
Avg. simulation wins: 102.0
Playoff %: 98.1 | Title %: 19.4

Best news so far: The Dodgers have been exactly what most observers thought they would be, and that’s bad news for the rest of baseball. Freddie Freeman has fit right in by being the same player he was in Atlanta. That’s no surprise, but when a player changes teams, you never know. The only surprise is that the oddity of seeing Freeman in Dodger blue wore off almost immediately.

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