Premier League outcome predicted by stats – as Man Utd discover top four fate

Stats giants Opta have come up with what they think the final 2019/20 Premier League table will look like, with the battle for the top four and to avoid relegation going down to the wire.

Football in England and across the world remains suspended in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, with the Premier League joining other top leagues around Europe in reiterating their desire to return to the current season when it is safe to do so.

In a statement on Friday, they said: "The Premier League is working closely with the whole of professional football in this country, as well as with the Government, public agencies and other relevant stakeholders to ensure the game achieves a collaborative solution.

"With this, there is a combined objective for all remaining domestic league and cup matches to be played, enabling us to maintain the integrity of each competition."

A return date is yet to be established given the fluid nature of the situation, so for now Opta have taken a look at their data and judged what they think the final table will look like.

A number of different metrics were taken into account, with as many as four years' worth of results studied to determine a team's form – although the most recent matches were understandably given precedence.

Quality of opposition and the difficulties of the remaining fixtures each team faces were also taken into account, with the final simulation run a staggering 10,000 times in order to ensure complete accuracy.

And here's how things ended up.

The final 2019/20 Premier League table according to Opta

1st: Liverpool – 101 points

2nd: Manchester City – 80 points

3rd: Leicester City – 67 points

4th: Chelsea – 63 points


5th: Manchester United – 61 points

6th: Tottenham Hotspur – 58 points

7th: Wolverhampton Wanderers – 56 points

8th: Arsenal – 56 points

9th: Sheffield United – 55 points

10th: Everton – 50 points

11th: Burnley – 49 points 

12th: Crystal Palace – 49 points

13th: Newcastle United – 46 points

14th: Southampton – 44 points

15th: West Ham United – 39 points

16th: Brighton & Hove Albion – 37 points

17th: Watford – 36 points


18th: Bournemouth – 36 points

19th: Aston Villa – 32 points

20th: Norwich City – 29 points

The final table sees Liverpool winning the title by a huge 21 points and with a record points haul of 101, one more than Manchester City's 2017/18 total.

City are clear in second, with Leicester and Chelsea making the top four and Manchester United missing out on a place in the Champions League – through league qualification at least – by just two points.

At the bottom there are immediate returns to the Championship for Norwich and Aston Villa, while Bournemouth are agonisingly relegated on goal difference as Watford survive by the skin of their teeth.

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