Ballarat tips, odds and betting analysis

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn runs his eyes over the Ballarat Cup Day meeting on Saturday to find the best plays of the day for punters.

BEST BET

The Astrologist (Ballarat Race 9, No.3)

VALUE BET

Jack Regan (Ballarat Race 2, No.3)

LAY OF THE WEEK

Pandemic (Kembla Grange Race 5, No.1)

BALLARAT

RACE 8: BALLARAT CUP

A competitive Ballarat Cup market with just three runners opening at single figure odds.

Affair To Remember was posted a $6 market leader. She is racing in terrific form having produced her customary strong late turn of foot to win the Group 2 Matriarch over this trip at Flemington last start.

The runner I expect will be in the finish at each-way odds is Kings Will Dream. The Chris Waller-trained seven-year-old will be ridden by Michael Rodd and did win the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over 2000m last spring.

So Si Bon is a marvel and must be included in the quaddie. He is value at $15 the win and $4.60 the place. The once maligned galloper is on the back-up after winning at Sandown last Saturday and is shooting for a fourth win in 12 starts.

An interesting long shot is Kiwia as he looks to win the cup for a third time. Kiwia was an $8.50 chance in 2018 when trained by Darren Weir and a $16 chance in 2019 under current trainer Archie Alexander.

He has opened $41 but comes into the race on a similar campaign path to last spring.

There is a case to be made for showing faith in runners who peak in certain races.

Junipal is racing in terrific form and must be respected

SUGGESTED BET: KING’S WILL DREAM each-way

The Astrologist is the favourite in the Magic Millions 3&4YO Classic. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

RACE 9: MAGIC MILLIONS 3&4YO CLASSIC

After being nosed out by Exhilarates in the final race at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day The Astrologist looks well placed to go one better and collect a fourth career victory.

He won over this trip at Geelong two starts ago and has been a model of consistency.

At about $2.50 he looks one of the better bets on what is historically a challenging punting day.

The main danger is Hard Landing, who won well at the Valley before being competitive in two Group races.

He then dropped in grade to run second to Alleboom at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day.

SUGGESTED BET: THE ASTROLOGIST the win

ASCOT

RACE 8: RAILWAY STAKES

Grant and Alana Williams saddle up two runners in the famous pink and white Bob Peters silks, including the favourite Inspirational Girl to be ridden by the local star William Pike.

Inspirational Girl is building an impressive resume with eight wins and two placings from her 10 starts.

She claimed the Group 3 Asian Beau Stakes last start holding off Too Close The Sun. One punter is sticking with Inspirational Girl with an early bet of $4000 at $3.50.

Stablemate Truly Great has returned in terrific form having won all three starts but will have to overcome a wide barrier and has drifted from $9 to $11.

The stable is shooting for a third straight win in the race, after the success of Galaxy Star in 2018 and Regal Power in 2019.

The fascinating runner is the enigmatic Kementari. He has drawn barrier one, which is a concern as he gets back and will need luck.

SUGGESTED BET: INSPIRATIONAL GIRL the win

Originally published asQunny’s tips: Signs point to Astrologist

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